Camilla Novaglio

Programme Area: Programme Area 1 - Coastal Resources and Sustainable Blue Economy

Working Group: WG Institutional and Behavioural Economics

Phone: +49 421 23800 - 0

Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Office: Fahrenheitstr. 8
28359 Bremen

Room: 3111 (1st floor)

Research interests

- Examine the impacts of climate change and resource exploitation on tropical marine ecosystems and livelihoods.
- Develop size-spectrum models to project ecosystem and fisheries responses under varying climate and management scenarios.
- Integrate ecological, economic, and social dimensions within coupled natural-human system models to capture feedbacks and emergent dynamics.
- Construct region-specific socio-economic scenarios to assess alternative futures and management strategies for sustainability.
- Evaluate trade-offs across food sectors -e.g., fisheries, aquaculture, and agriculture - to inform food security planning and resilience-building.
- Translate model results into policy-relevant insights that support evidence-based adaptation strategies.
- Engage with local communities to contextualize modelling frameworks and ensure relevance to governance challenges.
- Advance an interdisciplinary approach that bridges ecology, economics, and policy to promote sustainable ocean futures and resilient fisheries systems.

I am developing the new Working Group “Ocean Futures and Nutrition” at ZMT. Our work will use marine ecosystem models to explore possible futures of tropical marine systems, guided by three overarching research questions:

1. Climate change: How will tropical ecosystems evolve under climate change?
2. Fisheries: Which fisheries management and market strategies can deliver the best ecological and socio-economic outcomes in tropical regions?
3. Food security: What are the main threats to tropical aquatic food systems, and how can we enhance their resilience?

ORCID

Google Scholar

Selected peer-reviewed papers:

Rynne, N., Novaglio, C., Blanchard, J., et al. 2025. A skill assessment framework for the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project. Earth's Future 13, 4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004868

Novaglio, C., Bryndum‐Buchholz, A., Tittensor, D.P., et al. 2024. The past and future of the fisheries and marine ecosystem model intercomparison project. Earth's Future 12, 9. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004398

Cinner, J.E., Caldwell, I.R., Thiault, L., Ben, J., Blanchard, J.L., Coll, M., Diedrich, A., Eddy, T.D., Everett, J.D., Folberth, C., Gascuel, D., Guiet, J., Gurney, G.G., Heneghan, R.F., Jägermeyr, J., Jiddawi, N., Lahari, R., Kuange, J., Liu, W., Maury, O., Müller, C., Novaglio, C., et al. 2022. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nat Commun 13, 3530.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4

Novaglio, C., Bax, N., Boschetti, F., et al. 2022. Deep aspirations: towards a sustainable offshore Blue Economy. Rev Fish Biol Fisheries 32, 209–230. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-020-09628-6

Tittensor, D.P., Novaglio, C., Harrison, C.S. et al. 2021. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nat Clim Chang 11, 973–981. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9

Policy report:

Blanchard, J.L. & Novaglio, C., eds 2024. Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries – Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper, No. 707. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cd1379en