Abstract: Marine ecosystems are changing rapidly due to excessive fishing, climate change and multiple anthropogenic disturbances, and the essential ecosystem services they provide are under threat. In particular, marine resources, which provide livelihoods and a vital source of protein for people around the world, are expected to decline sharply in the future. Therefore, understanding how marine ecosystems respond to climate change and anticipating this response is a major scientific and societal challenge. This study uses the APECOSM model to analyse the structure and functioning of pelagic ecosystems on a global and regional scale, as well as the impact of the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. Configured with six high-trophic-level communities, the model realistically reproduces the vertical, horizontal and spatial structures of pelagic ecosystems. A regional analysis reveals the pivotal influence of temperature, currents, light, oxygen and trophic interactions. Uncertainties related to climate sensitivity experiments reveal contrasting responses among communities, significant alterations to their dietary habits and strong interactions. This research underscores the complexity of responses to climate change and the importance of an integrated, mechanistic understanding for predicting the resilience of future ecosystems.
ZMT - Leibniz Zentrum für Marine Tropenforschung
